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This is my first blog on fleaflickerr.com, and I will be dedicating it to someone who’s been in my life since 2018. This someone owns a pistachio farm, this someone likes playing football, this someone just beat Patrick Mahomes for the 4th time in his career.
Beating an undefeated Chiefs team by 10 points when you’re only favored by 2.5 is some pretty exciting news. On top of this, the South Carolina Gamecocks won a thriller and now have a shot to reach the CFP, but that’s a story for another url. Safe to say it was a great 2 days of football for Tyler Bush, but I’m not here to boast about my couch potato weekend. I’m here to boast about M-V-P-big-D**k-BO$$ Josh Allen and how insane this guy is at playing in the National Football League.
A lot of NFL fans know what it feels like to have a sh*t-a** quarterback, especially if you live in Cleveland. In 2024, the NFL quarterback is THE most important position on a football team. The leader who shapes the outcome of nearly every offensive play, they control the rhythm of the game and make crucial decisions under immense pressure. As the ‘face of the franchise’, their performance often defines a team’s success, embodying both its challenges and triumphs. The average tenure of a starting quarterback with a single NFL team is approximately 4.4 years. This duration reflects the significant investment teams make in their quarterbacks, often providing them with extended opportunities to develop and lead the offense. However, it also reflects the short span of opportunity and the rapid pace of cutting bait in the NFL.
As of the 2022 season, the NFL set a non-strike year record with 69 different quarterbacks starting games. The figure highlights the league's dynamic nature, and the constant ideology of frequent adjustment at the QB-1 position.
To have an average quarterback for a few years isn’t the worst, to have an above average quarterback for a few years is much better. To have a great QB for a few years is ideal, but to have a top 3 NFL QB for 6,7,8,9+ years, is the most valuable asset known to man in all of professional sports.
If we take a step back, the NFL generated $20 million in revenue in 2023. For comparison, Major League Baseball (MLB) and the National Basketball Association (NBA) each reported revenues of around $10.9 billion during the same period. While For the 2024/25 season, projections estimate the Premier League's revenue at around €7.477 billion, which, based on current exchange rates, is approximately $8.2 billion USD. So now, we can officially say the NFL is the most important sport in the world from a financial perspective.
Given that the most important position in the NFL is a quarterback, in addition to the fact that the NFL is the highest-grossing professional sports league in the world, I’d say having a guy like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Josh Allen is a pretty big deal. Or should I say, THE BIGGEST deal.
The point is…
I think it’s fair of me to “glaze” or brag about Josh Allen, so I am going to do so. All my life, I grew up with Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel, and the list goes on. I bet you don’t even know who half of those guys are and if I told you the names of the QBs who came BEFORE them, you would forget their names before you even get to the next paragraph (J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Edwards).
In addition to the glaze job I’m about to give for Josh Allen, I will also be arguing for why you should make a small investment on a sports bet that you will be thanking me in the future for. Josh Allen is still +150 odds or better (varies by book) to win MVP this season. Quick test…Can you remember the names of those shitty QB’s I just wrote about?
To set the stage, Josh Allen has established himself as one of the NFL's premier quarterbacks through a series of record-breaking achievements and memorable performances. In 2020, Allen set the Bills’ single-season records for passing yards (4,544), passing touchdowns (37), and total touchdowns (46), surpassing franchise legends like Jim Kelly. During that season, he led the Bills to a 13-3 record and their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1993. In the 2021 AFC Wild Card game against the New England Patriots, Allen delivered a flawless performance, throwing for 308 yards and 5 touchdowns on just 25 pass attempts, with no punts or turnovers from the Bills' offense—a feat unmatched in NFL postseason history. That same season, he became the only quarterback to record over 100 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns within their first four seasons, showcasing his unique dual-threat ability. Allen has also excelled in crucial moments, such as his 2022 overtime duel against Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Divisional Round, where he threw for 329 yards, 4 touchdowns, and added 68 rushing yards, leading a late go-ahead drive in one of the most thrilling games ever played. In addition to individual milestones, like being the first player in NFL history to have multiple seasons with 35+ passing touchdowns and 5+ rushing touchdowns, Allen’s ability to deliver highlight-reel plays, including hurdling defenders (as seen against Kansas City in 2021 and Green Bay in 2022), has made him one of the league's most dynamic players. These concrete achievements demonstrate Allen’s unparalleled impact and growth as a quarterback, both statistically and in high-stakes moments.
There’s no doubt he’s the second best-QB in the NFL next to Patrick Mahomes, and in 2024 many will pronounce Josh Allen as the ‘better’ QB, key-word “2024”. Of course Mahomes is ascending to Tom Brady status if he keeps up his Super Bowl ring pace but I’m talking about just this season.
There’s only 6 games left for most NFL teams and aside from Allen, many opposing candidates in the MVP race have severely hurt their chances just this past week.
Last year, we saw an impressive regular season performance from Lamar Jackson as he led his Baltimore Ravens to the #1 seed in the AFC. When it was all said and done, Jackson came out with his 2nd MVP trophy. Moreover, until this past week, I thought Jackson had a chance to win his 3rd MVP by the end of this regular season. But all has been tarnished. On top of giving up an AFC North lead to the Steelers, the Ravens are not the defensive powerhouse we are used to seeing. Relying on Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to save the game has failed in multiple games already against the Chiefs, Raiders, Browns and Steelers. While Jackson’s performance stats have been very good, MVP voters prioritize wins, and Baltimore probably won’t even win their own division.
In 2024, Joe Burrow is a statistical anomaly. Now if the Bengals have 7 wins at the moment- Cincinnati’s QB1 is the clear cut MVP favorite, that’s just how insane his statistics are. But the reality is that the Bengals are 4-7 and they’d have to win out for Burrow to win at least offensive player of the year, so we can officially take this option off the table.
Jayden Daniels was fun while it lasted, but those MVP dreams are dead. More importantly, with the way Bo Nix is playing, Daniels needs to step it up if he wants to lock in a rookie of the year award.
2 players who have steadily been increasing their MVP stock is Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts. Goff holds a historical 73% completion percentage and the Lions are 9-1. Realistically, I believe Goff should have the 2nd best odds to win MVP given how dominant this Detroit team is. Another divisional leader that has been putting on offensive clinics recently are the Philadelphia Eagles, led by a new-look Jalen Hurts offense. Jalen Hurts is 2nd in rushing touchdowns and that’s an impressive feat, however, despite these teams being great in 2024, these 2 QBs haven’t shown the consistency like Burrow, Allen, and Jackson have. You don’t typically see long stretches of amazing play from these QBs and that’s why I have a tough time beleiving they have a real shot to win.
Let me remind you that Kansas City still owns the best record in the NFL. But do you really think Mahomes is winning MVP with the numbers he’s putting up? Statistically it’s been his worst season of his career and a ‘nine’ in that Chiefs win column is the only beam of support holding up his MVP odds. Unlike the rest of these candidates, Mahomes doesn’t have the stats despite doing just enough on the field to win ball games.
This leaves us with the MVP favorite at +150, Josh Allen. And the price isn’t going to get any better, this is value.
In several Josh Allen campaigns, the Firebaugh kid has been in the MVP conversation multiple times since he’s been in the league. In 2020, he finished 2nd in MVP voting, 3rd in 2022, and fifth in 2023.
In 2023, Allen had 43 total touchdowns but his interceptions were the big killer to his argument. Costing the Bills several games, 14 interceptions is just too many interceptions for an MVP QB. A couple more wins and a few less picks might have been the recipe but “it is what is”.
In 2022, Allen had almost identical numbers however the Bills finished with a much more respectable win total of 13. Unfortunately for Allen, Patrick Mahomes beat him in almost every stat category. 50,000+ passing yards with 40+ TDs has only happened once before in NFL history and the Chiefs landed themselves the 1 seed to put the cherry on top.
Finishing top 5 in many QB stat categories, Josh Allen finished 2020 with more passing yards and rushing touchdowns than Aaron Rodgers. However, the gunslinger in Green Bay finished the season with a remarkable 48 to 5 TD-INT ratio, an NFL best in passer rating, and the #1 seed in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers was deservedly awarded the MVP by much of the media weeks before the season even ended and there wasn’t much of an argument given his historic season at quarterback.
As we approach week 12 of the 2024 regular season, the MVP race starts to narrow. Josh Allen has never been an MVP favorite this deep into a season. But, after beating the undefeated Chiefs the Bills’ signal caller is now the lead dog.
2,543 passing yards rank 7th among NFL QBs, 18 passing TDs rank 5th among QBs, a 98.2 rating puts him at 6th, and hes tied for 2nd for most rushing tds for a QB. Not to mention, the Bills are 9-2 and are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
In years prior, interceptions were always the problem. This year Allen is among the best at limiting those interceptions, he only has 5.
Of all the MVP candidates, Allen was the only QB to lose his WR1 and WR2 this offseason (S. Diggs and G .Davis). The 2024 season has seen Allen carry Buffalo through a very tough schedule, using his dual-threat abilities to maintain the Bills’ status as AFC contenders.
We all know how much of a leader he is and the intangibles are easy to see too. His combination of elite passing, dynamic rushing and aggressive efficiency makes him one of the most valuable players in the NFL, especially with the Bills positioned as a top AFC team.
Looking forward, the Bills have q perfectly balanced schedule to advance the idea of Allen winning MVP. In 3 straight weeks, the Bills face the 49ers, Rams, and Lions. These are strong very relevant NFC franchises in 2024, who can help beef up the MVP resume of Josh Allen. Especially if the Lions still have the best record in the NFC by December 15th, then Allen’s MVP chances skyrocket much higher. Of course, he has to win these games and still play at an elite level, but that #1 seed is something that Allen has always lacked in his argument. After those 3 games, the Bills play the Patriots twice and the Jets once.
In the Bills’ sole 2 losses Allen had 2 relatively poor games against Baltimore and Houston in back to back weeks on the road. However, when the Bills win, which is 9 times out 11, Allen has been one of the most consistent QB’s in the league averaging 248 yards and over 2 tds a game on a 68.5% completion percentage.
Typically I would expect the Bills and Josh Allen to slide at the end of the regular season but 2024 is different. Allen finally recognizes he can still play smart and aggressive and he’s finally showing off this season. The Bills finally have a shot at the 1 seed and Allen’s stats are even better than past seasons. Hop on the Allen train
now before it’s too late!
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